Employers and employees have always existed in a delicate equilibrium influenced by forces like supply and demand of the available workforce as well as societal factors. This equilibrium affects things like the hours employees are expected to work, fairness of pay, and an employer’s aversion to layoffs as moderated by fear of reputation damage.
During the early 20th Century, the equilibrium tipped strongly towards employers. Poor safety standards resulted in the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire on March 25, 1911, killing 146 workers, mostly immigrant women. The lust for cheap labor ultimately resulted in the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, which prohibited children under 14 from working.
Laws and societal changes tipped the balance towards employees during the second half of last century. The rate of workplace-related deaths has steadily declined. Average weekly hours per worker has dropped from around 60 in 1870 to roughly 35 in 2017.
In some industries, such as software engineering, the equilibrium has been very favorable for employees. Paychecks have been high, vacation time easy to obtain, and in regions like the Bay Area tech offices come with perks like endless snacks, beverages and beers. Some even offer complimentary laundry. This fortunate treatment is largely due to high demand for engineers.
That equilibrium is changing.
Many point to the “AI revolution” as reducing employee value. AI code assistant tools like GitHub Copilot or Cursor increase software engineer efficiency; not as many employees are needed to produce the same level of code. But it takes years for the effects of nascent technology to be fully felt. While there are productivity gains from such tools, they aren’t the cause of present employer efforts to devalue engineers.
Degrading employee primacy is occurring for other reasons. Layoffs were so frequent throughout the COVID-19 pandemic that they’ve almost become routine. Likewise, the Trump Administration has fired more than 200,000 government workers and counting, further normalizing dismissals. After Elon Musk threw what appeared to be a Nazi salute the billionaire class felt liberated to abandon even a pretense of caring about the “common man,” as evidenced by Jack Dorsey’s recent entirely lowercase layoff email to 931 employees.
The scales are tipping in the software engineering industry. At the behest of the Trump Administration companies with government contracts abruptly dropped their diversity, equity and inclusion programs. Pay will likely decrease or flatline with inflation. The “unlimited” vacation policies, which were mostly a way to avoid paying leave time when an employee quits, will be limited. Trained software engineers will find it harder to get jobs or move between employers and will switch careers at a greater rate. Say goodbye to the free stroopwafel and kombucha.
There aren’t many ways to forestall such changes. Forming or joining a union may provide a better platform to negotiate pay and discourage layoffs. The luddite movement, commonly misattributed to merely breaking looms, could be reinvigorated to mimic attempts to prevent a similar equilibrium from tipping too far in favor of textile industry employers.
Then again, maybe all of this is inevitabile. As my colleague said, “at least there’s always woodworking.”
Thomas Hunter II lives on Sierra Street.
Sara Moss 
Paul McDonald