Late last year three families on my Potrero Hill block departed San Francisco. This exodus, part of a regular pulse of partings, isn’t just a matter of statistics; it’s a loss of neighbors. Their children no longer play at Jackson Park or attend Daniel Webster Elementary School.
Why do so many families leave Potrero Hill? Unlike Dogpatch residents, Hill dwellers have resisted new residential development. This may seem like a prudent way to protect community cohesion, but it does the opposite. University of California, Berkeley researchers found that within a half mile of new apartments in San Francisco monthly rents dropped by between $20 and $40 compared to similar areas without recent construction. Even more striking: longtime residents were 17 percent less likely to be forced to move to cheaper neighborhoods. New housing served to protect existing residents.
In Dogpatch, new buildings have funded significant community improvements through impact fees, including helping to pay for wider sidewalks and Crane Cove Park. A growing population and improved amenities have nurtured small businesses. Areas that said “no” to housing got none of these benefits.
The Upjohn Institute tracked what happened when people moved into new buildings across several cities, including San Francisco. It found that each new structure sparked a chain reaction of moves that freed up housing across the municipality, ultimately helping dozens of middle and lower-income families find homes they could afford.
This points to a counterintuitive truth: building market-rate housing helps prevent gentrification. When we don’t build enough housing, wealthy newcomers compete for existing homes, driving up prices and pushing out long-time residents. We’ve seen this play out in neighborhoods like the Mission, where a lack of new construction led to more displacement, not less. But in areas that welcomed new housing, research shows that existing residents – especially middle and working-class families – are better able to stay in their homes. It turns out the best way to stop wealthy people from taking over current housing is to give them new places to live instead.
Recent residential development along 18th and Mariposa streets paid for community improvements through impact fees, including a reimaged Jackson Park. Most importantly, the buildings are now home to the kind of families that make up our community’s backbone, like the teachers who will live there and walk to work at Daniel Webster.
The math is simple: neighborhoods that welcome thoughtful development maintain the diverse mix of residents that makes them vibrant places to live. Those that don’t are slowly becoming exclusive enclaves where only the wealthy can afford to stay. The next development proposal in our neighborhood isn’t a threat. It’s an opportunity to keep Potrero Hill the diverse, vibrant community we love; a place where our children might actually be able to afford to live when they grow up.
Prodan Statev lives on 16th Street.
Sara Moss 
Paul McDonald